Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
